What Drives Us Episode #5 for the week of February 17th, 2010

Play the latest What Drives Us episode

This week Danny and Russell joined by Tony Schaefer to discuss, sorry, more on the Toyota recall, ton foil hat conspiracies, why does “sudden acceleration” occur (hint: it has to do with the gas pedal), more on the Nissan Leaf and the return of Maximum Bob Lutz, GM’s prognosticator supreme. We also pass along our most sincere sympathies to the families and staff of Tesla Motors for the tragic loss of three of their engineers in a terrible plane accident.

Download it through iTunes here.

Bad Influence

One way to find out what will not be happening in the consumer trends for just about anything is to listen or read “industry analysts”. I tend read a lot of this stuff and I’m astonished at how often these people can be staggeringly wrong and go on to make fourteen new predictions the next week as though they’ve never stumbled.

Here’s a piece from the Detroit Free Press on why EV’s will continue to be a very small niche product until at least 2020 according to the Boston Consulting Group. BCG is a gun for hire, management consulting company. The obvious question here is, who’s paying for this study?

Curiously enough, there was an interesting link in the Free Press story by Justin Hyde, this blog post from, of all places, gm-volt.com, says that the Mini-E chokes in the cold, badly. I’m somewhat surprised to hear this but this is exactly companies test prototypes before going to production.

According to the writer of the gm-volt.com blog post, who is testing of the Mini-E’s, not only are the batteries battered by the cold but the driving performance in snow and ice renders the car almost unusable. The writer admits he hasn’t followed BMW’s recommendation to change the all-season tires to snow tires however.

Responding

John Voelcker from Green Car Reports was kind enough to respond in comments below to this POG piece. I wanted to republish it on the front page, as it were, because I thought it was a great response and deserved better billing than the comments section.

Russell: Thanks for the good words. All of the questions in your last paragraph are very apt, and many of us will ask them as the cars get closer to the hands of actual drivers.

As for your comment on my closing question, I could probably have phrased it better. Here’s the point I was trying to get to …

Both cars are plug-ins, and hence will be perceived as “electric cars”. That is, users will expect them to run in electric mode some or most of the time.

From talking to Toyota and GM tech folks, I gather the Prius Plug-In may start its engine under many circumstances: Heavy load, full acceleration, a catalyst that’s cooling down, cold weather, and so forth. It remains fundamentally a power-split hybrid with a larger battery, and operates as such.

On the other hand, the Volt engineers tell me it switches on the engine only under one circumstance: The pack is depleted, which they say occurs only after 40 miles. (It may also fire the engine to start the car in extremely cold weather; must ask about that.)

SO, my question might better be: Will plug-in buyers expect continuous electric running for the stated range (12 or 40 miles)? If they do, I suspect the Prius Plug-In may have a perceptual problem, because it may well not run all-electric for 12 continuous miles. If not, no problem.

In either case, GM and Toyota are likely to be sold out of their first couple of years of production.

It’s in 2014 and after, as volume rises, that they’ll actually have to start to market these guys. That’s when it’ll get interesting!

The real cipher here is the Volt. As I said below, the Prius is a known quantity and, as John points out, perhaps the potential weakness of the Prius PHEV is that it is a Prius and not a brand new, designed from the ground up PHEV. Over the last couple years I’ve said the same thing here several times. While I love the Prius and can’t wait to see the Prius PHEV, I would prefer to see a brand new, designed to be nothing but a PHEV vehicle from Toyota. I think a PHEV should be smaller and lighter than the Prius (more range, better performance). I question whether or not the Prius is the ideal platform for a PHEV given where battery development is right now. All that is moot because this year Prius PHEV testing will begin.

Back to what John said…

I don’t know what the public perceptions of the PHEVs will be. None of us do (as John points out). It will be interesting to see if the Prius’ hybrid PHEV suffers in competition to the Chevy’s take on the PHEV concept. One thing both cars seem to insist on is that gas powered motors augment a pure EV concept for extended range.

I still think that two huge things give Toyota a leg up on producing a real PHEV. One, is using an existing, proven platform. For whatever drawbacks there are to using the Prius platform, there are also huge advantages and, let’s face it, Chevy’s been blowing smoke about the Volt for what, three years now? It’s still a mostly mythical car whereas the Prius is very real. Toyota has established itself in this altcars genre and I think that for every person who wants to buy a bowtie because it is a bowtie, there are just as many people who want the implied reliability and sound engineering that goes with the Toyota name.

John Voelcker wrote:

SO, my question might better be: Will plug-in buyers expect continuous electric running for the stated range (12 or 40 miles)? If they do, I suspect the Prius Plug-In may have a perceptual problem, because it may well not run all-electric for 12 continuous miles. If not, no problem.

My take on it is this, I don’t think consumers are going to care, too much, about how the ICE interacts in either vehicle. What will drive consumer reaction to the Prius PHEV and the Chevy Volt are the basics, MPG, ease of use, comfort, price, reliability. I don’t think that consumers will care overmuch about when the ICE starts and stops as long as it delivers on the PHEV potential of using very little gasoline. I could be wrong and if so, here are my words for future embarrassment but I don’t think I’ll be bummed out by what I’ve written in a few years.

My thanks to John Voelcker for taking the time to read my original article and add his thoughts to it.

The Difference is Clear

I’ve met and like John Voelcker from Green Car Reports. He’s a nice guy and he’s done some great reporting. This story though, I do not get. It feels like filler to me. Well, that and one more thing, it annoys me. The article annoys me because it’s blending two things that in reporting should not necessarily be mixed up, reality and promises.

Reality is walking out your front door, getting into your car and driving someplace. Promises are waiting on the street for a friend to pick you up. Sure, it’s a friend and they’re reliable and all that, but maybe they’ll be late. Maybe your friend you forgot you needed a ride. The two things, while having some similarities are, in practice, very, very different.

And so it goes with the much lauded Chevy Volt (the promise) and the Toyota Prius (the reality).

The Prius is a vehicle that has been on the market for more than ten years now. It has a track record. There are, quite literally, mountains of user collected data on the vehicle’s performance.

The Volt, it’s still in prototype testing. The Volt is now “scheduled” for release sometime, as John points out, sometime in 2011 (a date which has been moved back from Chevy’s original 2010 claim). Maybe Chevy will hit this date, maybe not. Maybe the Volt will do everything Chevy claims, maybe not.

Now, to be fair to John, he’s comparing the not yet in production Prius PHEV (that’s plug-in hybrid electric vehicle for those of you new to the acronym). So in a sense, I’m being a little tough on him. However, the Volt as a platform doesn’t exist at all now It’s all new, designed, according to Chevy, from the ground up. The Prius PHEV on the other hand is merely a modification of an existing vehicle to add PHEV functionality. This is something third party companies such as Hy-Motion have been doing for about five years now. In other words, even though Toyota is carefully testing the PHEV Prius this year for release next year (possibly), there is already data on how the vehicle performs modified as a PHEV.

My point here is this, it’s not really fair or even reasonable to compare one car that does exist to another that is still vaporware. Aside from the basic design differences between the vehicle (which are significant), the Volt is far from production ready. The Prius PHEV could go into production very soon if it were not that Toyota is a very conservative company that rigorously tests new concepts before releasing them. I think that’s a huge difference and it’s not realistic to compare the vehicles, at the very least right now, for that reason among many others.

Finally, John ends his article with this:

The big question: Will the experience of pure electric drive for three times the distance give the Volt an edge over a Prius Plug-In engine that stops and starts whenever it wants?

Here’s why this is NOT the big question and frankly, why John’s question is a terrible one, the Volt’s ICE will start and stop to charge the vehicle. Technically, the vehicle is “pure” electric drive but it’s a gas generated electric system so the idea that one has a motor that stops and starts and the other is “pure” is incorrect and misleading. Yes, what drives the wheels in the Volt is electricity only but what keeps that power flowing, is gas powered.

The big question is actually a few questions. Will the Volt be what Chevy says it is? What level of performance will the PHEV Prius offer? Will auto buyers flock to the established PHEV system in the Prius or run to the novelty of the Volt’s new hybrid system? Which system will hold up better over the long term and produce promised results? Will the size difference between the two vehicles be a factor for consumers (positive or negative)? trying to boil all this down to one question isn’t a reason able goal right now.

Slappin’ the bowtie

Here’s the money line from this story in the New York Times.

“No one is going to pay a $15,000 premium for a car that competes with a Corolla. So there are not enough idiots who will buy it.”

Those were the words of Johan de Nysschen, the president of Audi of America, who recently spoke (quite candidly) to Lawrence Ulrich of MSN Autos about the Chevrolet Volt.

And for those of you who think that’s harsh, here’s the reality of it. I went to Toyota.com and tried to build a $25K Corolla. Go give it a try. By adding, quite literally, everything Toyota sells for that car, from custom door sills to the ashtray, I got the Corolla to $23,508.

So yes, the $15K premium is a polite minimum.

And with all that said, if, and this is one big “if”, if the Volt can do what GM is claiming, I still think it’s a good thing. Maybe once GM has climbed this mountain they can bring the cost down. But those are big ifs.

And frankly, after spending a week in what is essentially GM’s lead mid-size sedan, the Impala, I have to tell you, they have a lot of work to do. Compared to the Prius, the Impala is vastly inferior vehicle in just about every measure.

Time will tell.

And let me add one more thing. I drove the Ford Fusion at Green Drive Expo in Madison last month. It’s not a bad car. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t even ponder trading in my Prius for a Fusion hybrid but it’s a bad option and I’m glad there are options out there for consumers to consider. But let’s extend this drama out a year or so. We may have another one or two hybrids from Toyota. Possibly some others from other companies. We’ll have a Fusion hybrid that’s already had a year or more under its belt. And then comes the Volt. That’s worse than a tough place to come from especially when your vehicle costs significantly more than all the others.

Calling the Volt a longshot is being more than polite or optimistic. It might just be fantasy.

High Voltage

Right now there is a lot talk about the Volt. With a provisional “MPG rating” of 230 MPG, there is no doubt GM will crank the hype machine into high gear. It’s really what the Volt project has been about, created positive publicity for GM.

One thing is clear to me, GM is still floundering, badly, with poor management, in whatever random direction seems to work at the moment.

This is great little piece which highlights one small problem with GM, promising more than they can deliver. At this point we don’t know exactly how the production Volt will perform. But GM is sure that talking about 230 MPG is the right thing to do.

It’s arguable that plug-ins should not be measured in MPG at all. BusinessWeek’s Ed Wallace argued the same thing here. Consumers need a touchstone, something to compare one vehicle to another but MPG on a plug-in a dangerous guide but MPG usefulness may have jumped the shark. With Nissan claiming 367MPG for it’s all electric Leaf, we see the ridiculous get downright insane. Yes, that’s right. Nissan is claiming their all electric vehicle will get 367MPG (or the equivalent of it) even though it will never use an ounce of gas. Wallace also points out that over-promised and under-delivering has been about the only thing GM has been good at it and it’s never helped them in the past and it won’t help them here.

And then, we still have far too much of the media trying to reduce issues where they shouldn’t be reducing. Here’s CNN/Money‘s latest travesty, it’s about which car makes sense, the Prius or the Volt. Funny, comparing a car that’s been out for a decade to one that doesn’t exist yet. Seems like an odd thing to do. And of course, being CNN/Money, they try, once more, to go down the “which car makes sense based on gasoline costs” which is odd for numerous reasons I’ve pointed out here again and again. CNN/Money dabbles in the typical comparing the Prius to a standard gas car half its size, to try to make the math make sense. I guess that’s why I was an art major.

Head, meet desk. Let the pounding commence.

What’s more, the work that Toyota and to a lesser extent, Honda have done in delivering reliable, long-lasting battery electric hybrids could be undone by a spectacular failure of the Volt’s (or the Leaf’s) battery pack. Batteries are still a huge question in most consumer’s minds even though the Prius has been on the road for a decade now. Add in a nationwide, media saturated, Volt flame out and we could see a backlash against any car with more parts more comlpex than fuel injection. That would be sad but it could happen.

Volts and unicorns

Kevin Bullis, writing for the MIT Technology Review has some things to say about GM and the Volt…

After GM filed for bankruptcy this morning, a spokesperson for the company told me that the filing will have no impact on its plans to start selling an electric car called the Volt at the end of next year.

Bullis’ article in no way question the unnamed GM spokesperson but I sure as hell would. This is coming from a company that has reversed themselves so many times they’re not sure which direction they are going anymore. I would question the roll out date, the viability of the vehicle and what spokespeople told me about it.

It’s not clear that the government will tell GM what to do about the Volt.

Which is an odd thing to write immediately before you quote the President saying that

the new GM, not the United States government, will make that decision.

Call me whacky but I’ld tend to listen to one of these people before the other. Continuing on with the theme that if anything happens to the Volt it’s not GM’s fault…

If the government does get involved with the Volt, it may not be good news for the vehicle.

Why is that? I don’t think anyone over the age of eight with even a cursory knowledge of GM doesn’t know about the Volt and the pivotal place it could fill in GM’s future. Assuming, and here’s the real leap of faith, that GM can deliver on what it’s flacks and worthless executives have been prattling on about for the last year. If indeed GM cannot deliver on that hot air then yes, let’s quit pouring money down that rathole pretending to be green and all high tech and have them start on a real vehicle that they could sell.

There’s a lot of blather about GM and the government and the future of the now 60% owned by the taxpayers company. A lot of blather. As a counterpoint to some of that I would suggest checking out Eugene Robinson’s article in the WaPo.

Bob, bob, bobbin’ along

Maximum Bob Lutz visited the David Letterman recently to defend the Volt program from Letterman’s comedic (and mostly right) assaults. Do check out the original article on Cnet, it has a YouTube clip from Lutz’s visit to The Late Show and it’s worth watching Lutz hem and haw his way through the interview.

The thing Lutz glosses over (or glides past depending on your point of view) is that the EV-1 could have been the first of a series of vehicles which would made GM the pioneer in this area. Instead, GM opted to abandon it for short terms gains and now, well, this week they face bankruptcy.

Also of interest was Lutz’s hedging on the actual delivery date of the Volt. While earlier touting as being “at dealers” in 2010, when Letterman pushes Lutz stammers out that it will probably be sometime in 2011 before it’s available for sale to the public.

The money quote in the Cnet article come at the end. Grabbing a one line from man known as “The Chief”…

In fact, Toyota Chief Engineer Akihiko Otsuka was recently quoted in BusinessWeek saying, “I don’t think EVs can replace hybrids in the near future. We have to think about the balance between the EV driving range, the size, and the cost.”

And he’s absolutely right. Until we have the infrastructure in place for EV’s, further reduce battery and increase battery reliability and re-educate the public that a limited range vehicle can fulfill most of their needs and do so cheaply, we’re not ready for mainstream EV sales. That’s the “near future”.

We get letters

Casey Williams of car-data.com sent an email asking if he could respond to a couple posts here commenting on his writing that mentioned the Prius. I told that I would be happy to publish anything he cared to say Prius related so below are his responses to two POG posts (the original posts noted in a link above the comment.

Thanks to Casey for taking the time to write. Casey, you’re welcome to post your opinions here anytime.

In response to the POG post “Is the best way to sell a Yukon to insult a Prius?” Casey Williams said,

“You have to know I’m a big Prius fan and have tested several of them (first two generations) over the years. I would love a third-generation for my personal garage. They’re great cars. I was just having a little fun with the Yukon review, not trying to insult the Prius. During the morning about which I wrote, there were over 12″ of fresh snow in my driveway in Indianapolis with taller drifts on the main roads. None of the roads were plowed yet. I literally busted down drifts with the bumper of the SUV driving to work. Almost no cars were going anywhere, including my friend’s Prius. No insults meant. It was just a good analogy to point out the differences, and focus, of the Yukon Hybrid. Compared to a Prius, it drinks a lot of gas and has few of the benefits Prius owners enjoy so much. It does, however, get in-town fuel economy comparable to a mid-size sedan (a big improvement over non-hybrid Yukons), can tow a 30-ft. travel trailer, and clear 12″+ of snow (which a Prius, and most other sensible cars, can’t). Each vehicle has its purpose; owners of both are very happy.”

In response to the POG post “Let’s pretend” Casey Williams said,

“I have not driven a Chevy Volt – almost no journalists have. However, I have driven the Chevrolet Equinox fuel cell vehicle and GM’s notorious EV1. GM engineers claim the electrical system in the Equinox is very similar to the Volt’s, with the key difference being that the Equinox gets its electricity from a chemical conversion of hydrogen while the Volt has an on-board gasoline generator and can be plugged in. The beauty of the GM design is that they can essentially “plug n’ play” powertrains (diesel, hydrogen, gasoline, ethanol, etc) while using the same basic electric drive system (unlike a Prius, the Volt is an electric car with the wheels always driven by motors and batteries). Despite its limited range and complete failure in the market, the EV1 was also a lot of fun to drive and accelerated briskly.”

Thanks again Casey for taking the time to comment on our posts.

Celebrity endorsements

Jay Leno says the Volt is superior to the Prius. My guess is he hasn’t driven either since a production Volt doesn’t exist and it’s extremely unlikely he’s driven one of the very third generation Prii on the continent so this is, just some blather. That said, it is nice to see self-described car geek Leno offer his wisdom on two cars (quoted from a Chevy site no less) he’s never driven.

Cash for clunkers

From the Detroit Free Press…

The program would apply only to new vehicles built in North America, with cars having to hit at least 27 miles per gallon on the highway if built in the United States and 30 m.p.g. if built in Canada or Mexico. Truck models would have to make 24 m.p.g. on the highway.

The old vehicles traded in under the program would have to be crushed or recycled. And in a nod to plug-in hybrids such as the Chevrolet Volt, the bill would offer a $7,500 voucher toward any U.S.-made vehicle that garners 100 m.p.g.

All the new vehicles would have to carry sticker prices less than $35,000.

This is a proposal for a bill in congress. While I do think it has some merit the next time an “American” company starts whining about government support or crying for “free trade”, I want to remember this.

It’s all about storage, chapter #401

From a brief discussion of Nihm batteries versus Lion cells.

The CEO of the Korean electronics giant, LG, said recently that nickel metal hydride batteries were “primitive” and would be soon replaced by “advanced” lithium-ion batteries for use in the electrification of vehicles. This comment was pure hype and was biased by the fact that LG has won the contract to supply lithium-ion batteries for the 40 mile range, pricey golf cart performance matching Chevrolet Volt. The aforesaid CEO does not, of course, want to take note of the fact that the development of “advanced” nickel metal hydride batteries has continued even beyond their “primitive” use in the hybrids mass produced and sold as the Toyota Prius, Toyota Camry, Ford Escape, Mercury Mariner, Ford Fusion, Mercury Milan, and Honda Insight to name the most prominent. These so-called “primitive” batteries have a record of reliability, durability, overall life, and recyclability that is second to none. In addition their pricing has steadily dropped(!) since their introduction.

And…

Toyota, for its part, says that the NiMH battery in the 2010 model is a significant improvement over the currently supplied NiMH battery.